Core Investment Thesis
Risk / Reward Profile
Hyperliquid is the fastest-growing product in crypto's most profitable vertical—perpetual futures.
Incumbent CEX desks earn >$10B yearly; Hyperliquid is already on a $0.8–0.9B run-rate and compounding faster.
Valuation Snapshot
Current Metrics
- • Price ≈ $44–45 / HYPE
- • $14.9B circulating cap
- • $45B FDV
Supply Schedule
- • 30% team (1-yr cliff, linear vest 2026-28)
- • 40% community rewards
- • 30% in float
Cap Table Comfort
- • Founders bootstrapped and still run lean, therefore no VC overhang
- • ~93% of protocol fee revenue is auto-routed to buy-backs, so the team has proven it doesn't need to sell into rallies
- • Community pool unlock cadence is deliberately slow (first airdrop took years). Expect only single-digit % of new tokens hitting the market at any time
Why $15B Cap Still Has Upside
Market Position
- • Dominant DEX perps share – ~90% of on-chain volume, but just 10% of Binance and 20% of Bybit
- • Deepest on-chain liquidity – handled $1B BTC positions without dislocation
- • Fee edge – taker fees are one order of magnitude lower than CEXes
Growth Drivers
- • HIP-3 flywheel – anyone who stakes 1M HYPE can spin up new perp markets
- • Reg & culture tailwinds – U.S. perps access is opening
- • HyperEVM moat – L1 for settlement lets dApps plug directly into exchange
Buyer Profile
ETH/SOL whales diversifying, VCs shut out of private rounds, and TradFi desks running P/E screens on fee yield.
Counter Arguments & Risks
- • Coinbase/Robinhood launching futures in the US, creating domestic competition.
- • Significant selling pressure: 4.7M HYPE in 7-day unstaking queue, including one whale unstaking 2.4M.
- • Rumors of Binance secretly developing a direct competitor.
- • Custody risk: Funds are secured in a 3-of-4 multi-signature wallet.
- • Centralization risk: The network is maintained by only 21 active validators.
- • Sanction risk: Reports of sanctioned entities (e.g., North Korea) using the platform.
- • Lack of Lindy: The protocol is relatively new and has not been battle-tested over multiple market cycles.
Concise Summary
Hyperliquid already controls nearly all on-chain perp flow yet captures only a low-teens share of CEX activity. At $15B float cap the token trades at ≈18× revenue, rich versus GMX but supported by a hard buy-back yield (~5%) and a supply schedule that trickles out. If volume merely triples by 2027 (still <¼ of Binance), our base-case DCF pegs fair value at $82/HYPE on float, leaving headroom despite the scary $45B FDV headline. But supply emissions and fee compression remain the live risks; therefore position-size for volatility, watch HIP-3 uptake, and track buy-back wallet flow as the real tell.
The Onchain Trading Infrastructure
Hyperliquid isn't just another perp DEX—it's building the infrastructure for autonomous, onchain trading. While the market's been focused on token incentives and TVL, Hyperliquid is quietly building the most performant, fully onchain trading infrastructure. This isn't just another DEX—it's the future of onchain trading.
Key Differentiators:
- Sovereign trading system with custom Layer 1 architecture
- Fully onchain orderbook with zero external dependencies
- 5-10ms latency with complete decentralization
- Developer ecosystem for onchain HFT and autonomous trading
- Infrastructure-level innovation, not just another perp DEX
High Performance
5-10ms Latency
Fully Onchain
Zero External Dependencies
Custom L1
Purpose-Built Architecture
Why Hyperliquid Is Different
Hyperliquid at a Glance
Hyperliquid's architecture and features are building something unprecedented in onchain trading. The challenge is understanding the full picture.
| Feature | Hyperliquid |
|---|---|
| Category | Onchain Perpetuals, Infrastructure Layer |
| Stage | Pre-token, high-traction protocol |
| Architecture | Custom Layer 1 for trading |
| Orderbook | Fully onchain |
| Latency | 5-10ms |
| Dependencies | Zero external |
| Token Status | Pre-launch |
The Hyperliquid Ecosystem
A comprehensive financial ecosystem built on Hyperliquid high-performance infrastructure
DeFi Protocols
Lending & Borrowing
- • HyperLend - Native lending platform with multiple pool types
- • PrimeFi - Omnichain money-market protocol
- • Keiko Finance - Permissionless CDP protocol
- • Sentiment - Portfolio-based borrowing
DEX & Trading
- • KittenSwap - ve(3,3) model DEX
- • Sunder Finance - Meta-DEX with vote-escrow
- • Valantis - Modular DEX with custom pools
- • Laminar - Liquidity aggregator
Stablecoins
- • Felix - Over-collateralized feUSD
- • Resolv (USR) - Delta-neutral yield stablecoin
- • Lambda - BTC-collateralized btcUSD
- • USDT0 - Omnichain USDT integration
Yield & Staking
- • StakedHYPE - Official liquid staking
- • Kinetiq - Advanced validator selection
- • LoopedHYPE - Automated yield optimization
- • HyperYield - Next-gen yield aggregator
Infrastructure & Tools
Bridges & Interoperability
- • HyBridge - Native cross-chain bridge aggregator
- • Wormhole - Cross-chain messaging
- • LayerZero - Omnichain interoperability
- • Nitro Router - Cross-VM bridge
Oracles & Data
- • RedStone - High-frequency price feeds
- • Pyth Network - Institutional-grade data
- • Stork Oracle - Flexible data feeds
- • HypeRPC - Premier node service
Trading & Analytics
Trading Tools
- • Silhouette - Private trading platform
- • Insilico Terminal - Professional EMS
- • Katoshi - Automated trading layer
- • Tealstreet - Modern trading software
Analytics & Monitoring
- • HyperTerminal - All-in-one analytics
- • HyperStats - Network statistics
- • Hypervisor - Custom dashboards
- • Nansen Integration - On-chain analytics
Wallets & Identity
Wallets & Payments
- • Leap Wallet - Multi-chain integration
- • Tholos - Multi-sig platform
- • Cypher - Crypto payments
- • BasedApp - Visa card integration
Mobile & Identity
- • Mercury - Mobile trading app
- • Lootbase - Mobile DeFi app
- • Liquid Start - Project incubation
- • .hl Domains - Native identity
⚠️ A Massive Risk on the Horizon
Despite all its strengths, Hyperliquid faces a challenge that could seriously affect its volume, TVL, and ultimately, price. A significant portion of its core, high-volume users are U.S.-based, and they may soon have compelling alternatives.
The U.S. User Dilemma
The Coming Competition
Coinbase and Robinhood are launching perpetual futures in the U.S. This changes everything, offering a safer, regulated, and easier-to-use alternative for American traders.
Most traders prioritize ease of use and regulation over decentralization. When given the choice, many will likely migrate to these established, compliant platforms. Hyperliquid already struggles to gain market share against Binance; adding Coinbase to the mix will intensify the pressure.
Hyperliquid's Path Forward: Innovate or Perish
In the short to medium term, both Hyperliquid and the $HYPE token will likely take a hit. However, the platform's long-term survival depends on its core advantages:
- Decentralization: True ownership and control.
- Exotic Markets: Community-driven listings that CEXs won't touch.
- Superior Terms: Higher leverage and potentially lower fees.
The HIP-3 Game-Changer
The upcoming HIP-3 upgrade is pivotal. It will allow anyone to permissionlessly launch a perp market, unlocking a long tail of trading opportunities on assets unavailable on centralized exchanges. This is where Hyperliquid can build its defensible moat.
This is a critical moment. Hyperliquid must double down on what makes it unique—innovation, openness, and speed. While short-term pressure is inevitable, its ability to innovate with features like HIP-3 and the HyperEVM ecosystem will determine if it can bounce back and reclaim market share.
Farming Opportunities
With 38.9% of $HYPE tokens locked for community rewards and future emissions, discover the best ways to maximize your yield in the Hyperliquid ecosystem.
Getting Started
Direct Entry
- • Hyperliquid Perp Site - Bridge $USDC (ARB)
- • HyperUnit - Bridge BTC, ETH, SOL
- • Hybridge - Multi-chain bridge with HyPoints
Staking Options
- • Native Staking ($stHYPE)
- • Looped Hype ($LHYPE) - Phase 2 live
- • Magpie Hype ($mHYPE) - Position for $HPP
- • Kinetiq Hype ($kHYPE) - Coming soon
Advanced Strategies
Yield Aggregators
- • Hyperbeat - Multi-asset vaults (5x Upshift Points)
- • MizuLabs - ETH chain deposits
- • Hyperyield - 36.83% APY on USDXL
Lending & CDPs
- • HypurrFi - Supply/borrow + USDXL minting
- • HyperLend - USDe lending
- • Felix - HYPE → feUSD minting
- • Keiko - Asset-backed KEI stablecoin
Liquidity Pools
Kittenswap Pools
- • feUSD/USDT0 - 37.5% APY
- • feUSD/USDe - 11.12% APY
- • KEI/USDT0 - 19.03% APY + Keiko points
- • USDT0/USDXL - 46.88% APY + Hypurr points
Optimization Strategies
- • Loop mHYPE on HypurrFi (2x multiplier)
- • HYPE/mHYPE or HYPE/LHYPE pools (10-15x points)
- • Hyperbeat passive deposits (5x Upshift points)
- • Keiko stability pool rewards
Important Considerations
- • Hyperbeat deposits are locked for 1 hour before withdrawal
- • 5x Upshift Points available until $750M TVL (currently $335M)
- • Some pools are cap-sensitive - early entry recommended
- • Consider combining multiple strategies for optimal returns
HYPE Valuation: Context Matters
If Hype is pushing ~$600M annualized revenue and trading at a ~26.5x FDV multiple, it's operating in the same valuation range as peak ETH (Nov ‘21) and SOL (Jan ‘25) — but the context and quality of that revenue matters a lot more now.
| Metric | HYPE (Est.) | SOL (Jan ‘25) | ETH (Nov ‘21) | BERA (May ‘25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annualized Rev ($bn) | ~$0.60 | $6.61 | $21.90 | ~$0.002 - $0.004 |
| FDV ($bn) | ~$15.9 | $177.00 | $578.71 | ~$1.4 - $1.6 |
| FDV/Revenue Multiple | ~26.5x | 26.77x | 26.42x | ~350x ⚠️ |
Interpretation
Berachain, a blockchain network that launched its mainnet in February 2025, has experienced volatile metrics as of May 2025. Its daily active users (DAUs) range from 25,000 to 60,000, with transaction volume holding steady at 1.5–2 million transactions daily, reflecting sustained engagement. Average transaction fees remain low, likely under $0.001 per transaction, consistent with its cost-efficient design.
However, Berachain's revenue is a concern—daily figures have dropped to under $10,000, translating to an annualized revenue of $2M–$4M. Despite a total value locked (TVL) of $1.175B–$1.2B and an FDV of $1.4B–$1.6B, its FDV/revenue multiple is an alarming ~350x, far exceeding the ~26x multiples of established networks like Solana and Ethereum at their peaks.
This high multiple, driven by incentive-fueled activity and early speculation, suggests overvaluation. Berachain must significantly boost revenue (20x or more) to justify its current FDV, or it risks a valuation correction if growth falters. Meanwhile, HYPE maintains a more reasonable multiple in line with historical peaks of major L1s, suggesting a more sustainable valuation model.
The Path Forward
"Hyperliquid today is like buying NASDAQ at launch, or owning the trading infrastructure of the future."
The story is just getting started. With token launch, ecosystem growth, and autonomous trading on the horizon, Hyperliquid is building the infrastructure for the next generation of onchain trading. If you're here, you're early. Let's build the future together.